Good morning, all! Hard to believe we’re already in the fourth quarter of 2022. On the personal side, my family has a lot to look forward to as we approach the finalization of the adoption of our son, Ivan, next month. Since joining our family a handful of years back, together we’ve grown to share a strong, deeply rooted value system. We are thankful for the foster and adoption experience, and thrilled to celebrate Ivan becoming a permanent part of our family.
In both personal life and the financial world, there will always be uncertainties and opportunities. Professionally, my journey is to help you achieve your goals, strategizing your finances to best enable you to experience life the way that you want to. If you’d like to discuss your goals in further detail, please don’t hesitate to reach out.
Yours truly,
Market Summary: Q4 Insights
This past year: In Q1-Q3 2022, we have continued to take measures to help manage risk across portfolios, a trend that we are maintaining in Q4.
Falling demand & inflation: Although October’s report showed a higher-than-expected September inflation rate of 8.2%, some pre-pandemic era drivers of inflation are slowing from falling demand – such as supply chain constraints and retailers previously purchasing excess levels of inventory. Freight pricing has dropped to just above 2018 levels and companies have excess inventory. It takes time for inflationary data to reflect the impact of such factors, but many expect to see evidence over the next year.
Fed rate movement: The market bounce for the last three weeks of October may have been reflective of the hope that the Fed would reduce the future pace at which they increase rates. At their November 2 meeting, they did convey that they may reduce the pace of increases, but also that rates may continue to increase longer than originally anticipated. Positive and negative volatility may continue accordingly, due to the pace and duration of increases.
Upcoming trades aim to reduce overall risk: This environment of unusually limited signals warrants a cautious and mixed (but not outright bearish) approach and reinforces the value of diversification.
Balancing positions for inflation and recession risks: Reported inflation remains a top concern for markets. We believe markets have only now begun to focus on recession and earnings risk as well.
Maintaining a preference for US over International: We are currently overweighting US stocks with a preference for inflation-sensitive Developed Market stocks, as international economic and inflation outlooks and central bank policy initiatives diverge from the US.
New: Certus Wealth Management Mobile App
As we continue to expand technology solutions for clients, Certus Wealth Management has launched a new mobile app. The free app is available for download through the App Store and Google Play. In order to obtain your login credentials, you may need to request access by emailing info@certuswealthmanagement.com. The app is a convenient and easy way to access your portfolio information, dating back to when we began working together at Certus Wealth Management. Note that you can adjust your settings through the app to enable biometric access (i.e. Face ID on Apple devices and Face Recognition on Android).
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Certus Wealth Management, 1025 Alameda de las Pulgas, Ste. 102, Belmont, CA 94002, (650) 232-2023
